Both the CPI and PPI came in precisely within expectations. Under the current circumstances, there is now a very high probability that the Federal Reserve will implement a quarter-point rate cut, a view widely shared by industry analysts. There is also a strong possibility of another cut to follow.
Jobless Claims
The release of major inflation data has once again arrived with the Consumer Price Index and the Producer Price Index, offering insight into the current state of the economy. Based on recent statements from the Federal Reserve, there is considerable speculation that rate cuts may occur regardless of the trajectory of inflation.
With the release of the PCE Index, inflation has shown to still be creeping upwards but there is significant speculation that the Federal Reserve will continue with their interest rate cut in the future. Meanwhile, the Consumer Sentiment report has been growing pessimistic amidst the job market, which has been shown to be in a pattern of cooling down.
This is offset by the strong growth by the GDP estimates for the second quarter, as it was initially predicted the tariff changes would have a significant impact on the GDP estimates, but the impact has been less prominent than expected.
The FOMC meeting that was held the previous week to discuss upcoming decisions addressed the future of the economic landscape.
During his remarks, Jerome Powell stated that inflation will rise in the future, with consumers bearing the burden. Many have speculated that this means reductions in current rates are unlikely to happen anytime soon, in an attempt to keep inflation under control.
Another notable release was the leading economic indicators, which once again showed contraction–signaling the potential for further economic decline.
This will be the first release of the CPI and PPI data wherein the data collected and used to determine the current inflation has been reduced. The Producer Price Index has shown quite clearly that there has been the biggest whole price jump in the last 3 years, showing that the administration’s policies on tariffs are having an impact. The CPI has shown a similar increase in inflation, but still within expectations in lieu of the current tariff policies.
There were several notable releases this last week, with the largest being the PCE Index — the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation indicator. The PCE Index may be the more accurate indicator going forward, as data collection for the Consumer Price Index has been recently cut, thereby reducing its reliability. As expected, the inflation numbers have been steadily rising with the PCE Index, indicating that impacts from the tariffs are now filtering into prices for both producers and consumers.
There were several notable releases this last week, with the largest being the PCE Index — the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation indicator. The PCE Index may be the more accurate indicator going forward, as data collection for the Consumer Price Index has been recently cut, thereby reducing its reliability. As expected, the inflation numbers have been steadily rising with the PCE Index, indicating that impacts from the tariffs are now filtering into prices for both producers and consumers.
As a follow up, Personal Income & Spending has had a light upturn after the initial panic with the tariffs. Lastly, the job numbers from last week have been unexpectedly weak, showing a slow down of the economy overall due to many factors.
Very little was released this week due to the major inflation data releases from the previous week. The Leading Economic Index was the most significant–and only–impactful release this week, showing a further decline in overall sentiment about the current economic situation. The majority of the decline was caused largely driven by expectations for business conditions. The decline was faster than expected, enough to warrant continued monitoring of the Leading Economic Index going forward.
While inflation has slowed down since the pandemic, it is showing a faster-than-expected rise for consumers, as the CPI (Consumer Price Index) has reported a higher than expected 0.3% increase, contrasted to the 0.2% expected increase.
Meanwhile, the PPI (Producer Price Index) has proven to be entirely flat, with the largest takeaway being that signs of tariff-related inflation are, at best, scattered among data reports, leading to many speculating that the impacts have been overestimated.
Given continued inflation for consumers, it is very unlikely the Federal Reserve will make any adjustments to the rate as it adopts a “wait-and-see” approach to the administration’s policies. Another noteworthy data release is retail sales, which has shown to snap back after the concerns about tariffs and widespread price increases have eased.
This was an extremely light release week with only the Consumer Credit Report. The amount of expected credit was expected to rise but only showed half the growth — a sign that things are still in stable condition. The most important reports will be featured with next week’s releases of inflation data in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Producer Price Index (PPI), as well as the Federal Reserve’s Beige book. The Trump Administration has also further extended the pauses on the tariffs which has been a welcome relief.