With the ongoing government shutdown, other major releases have hit a snag, as there is still very limited information for when the shutdown may end. The largest and most impactful releases continuing to move forward are those from third-party sources still publishing data — such as the Consumer Sentiment report — which shows that consumers remain concerned about inflation but have recently grown more optimistic about the labor market.
Jobless Claims
While the government shutdown remains ongoing, inflation data for both the CPI and PPI has been released, indicating that inflation came in below expectations.
While the government shutdown remains ongoing, inflation data for both the CPI and PPI has been released, indicating that inflation came in below expectations.
The government has been facing a shutdown for the past 19 days with continued obstinacy from both parties, largely over healthcare subsidies.
As a result, there will be few major reports this week, the most notable being the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book, which indicates that the U.S. economy is once again showing signs of slowing.
Due to the government shutdown, nearly all reports will be delayed aside from a few third party reports. The Consumer Sentiment report has been released on time and shows that consumers are still frustrated with the economy and increasingly high inflation. It is unknown when the government shutdown will end and when we will be seeing reports released again in a timely fashion. Interest rates will still be continued to be adjusted amidst the government shutdown.
The release of key Unemployment Data was delayed last week due to administrative changes in how jobless figures are tracked. The Consumer Confidence report reflects these policy adjustments, showing growing concerns about the job market and a larger-than-expected decline in confidence for September.
Lastly, with tariff disruptions continuing to affect the manufacturing sector, the Global US Manufacturing data has revealed that production has slowed overall since the initial disruptions.
The PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) Index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, has been on the rise but remains within expectations.
Although there was heavy speculation that this year’s inflation would spike due to impactful tariff policies, it has largely stayed within forecasts–enough for the Federal Reserve to introduce a 25 basis point rate cut.
It has been a relatively light week following the recent rate changes, as the Federal Reserve has felt the need to drop the current rate by 25 basis points. They have also mentioned the possibility of two additional rate cuts within this year. This follows the recent sharp criticism from the current administration, which condemned the Federal Reserve’s insistence on maintaining existing interest rates.
Both the CPI and PPI came in precisely within expectations. Under the current circumstances, there is now a very high probability that the Federal Reserve will implement a quarter-point rate cut, a view widely shared by industry analysts. There is also a strong possibility of another cut to follow.
The release of major inflation data has once again arrived with the Consumer Price Index and the Producer Price Index, offering insight into the current state of the economy. Based on recent statements from the Federal Reserve, there is considerable speculation that rate cuts may occur regardless of the trajectory of inflation.