Due to the government shutdown, nearly all reports will be delayed aside from a few third party reports. The Consumer Sentiment report has been released on time and shows that consumers are still frustrated with the economy and increasingly high inflation. It is unknown when the government shutdown will end and when we will be seeing reports released again in a timely fashion. Interest rates will still be continued to be adjusted amidst the government shutdown.
Financial Reports
The release of key Unemployment Data was delayed last week due to administrative changes in how jobless figures are tracked. The Consumer Confidence report reflects these policy adjustments, showing growing concerns about the job market and a larger-than-expected decline in confidence for September.
Lastly, with tariff disruptions continuing to affect the manufacturing sector, the Global US Manufacturing data has revealed that production has slowed overall since the initial disruptions.
The PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) Index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, has been on the rise but remains within expectations.
Although there was heavy speculation that this year’s inflation would spike due to impactful tariff policies, it has largely stayed within forecasts–enough for the Federal Reserve to introduce a 25 basis point rate cut.
It has been a relatively light week following the recent rate changes, as the Federal Reserve has felt the need to drop the current rate by 25 basis points. They have also mentioned the possibility of two additional rate cuts within this year. This follows the recent sharp criticism from the current administration, which condemned the Federal Reserve’s insistence on maintaining existing interest rates.
Both the CPI and PPI came in precisely within expectations. Under the current circumstances, there is now a very high probability that the Federal Reserve will implement a quarter-point rate cut, a view widely shared by industry analysts. There is also a strong possibility of another cut to follow.
The release of major inflation data has once again arrived with the Consumer Price Index and the Producer Price Index, offering insight into the current state of the economy. Based on recent statements from the Federal Reserve, there is considerable speculation that rate cuts may occur regardless of the trajectory of inflation.
With the release of the PCE Index, inflation has shown to still be creeping upwards but there is significant speculation that the Federal Reserve will continue with their interest rate cut in the future. Meanwhile, the Consumer Sentiment report has been growing pessimistic amidst the job market, which has been shown to be in a pattern of cooling down.
This is offset by the strong growth by the GDP estimates for the second quarter, as it was initially predicted the tariff changes would have a significant impact on the GDP estimates, but the impact has been less prominent than expected.
The FOMC meeting that was held the previous week to discuss upcoming decisions addressed the future of the economic landscape.
During his remarks, Jerome Powell stated that inflation will rise in the future, with consumers bearing the burden. Many have speculated that this means reductions in current rates are unlikely to happen anytime soon, in an attempt to keep inflation under control.
Another notable release was the leading economic indicators, which once again showed contraction–signaling the potential for further economic decline.
This will be the first release of the CPI and PPI data wherein the data collected and used to determine the current inflation has been reduced. The Producer Price Index has shown quite clearly that there has been the biggest whole price jump in the last 3 years, showing that the administration’s policies on tariffs are having an impact. The CPI has shown a similar increase in inflation, but still within expectations in lieu of the current tariff policies.
There were several notable releases this last week, with the largest being the PCE Index — the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation indicator. The PCE Index may be the more accurate indicator going forward, as data collection for the Consumer Price Index has been recently cut, thereby reducing its reliability. As expected, the inflation numbers have been steadily rising with the PCE Index, indicating that impacts from the tariffs are now filtering into prices for both producers and consumers.